How Is Crash Probability Calculated? Target Odds, Crash Distribution, and 99% RTP

Direct answer

In the LINBEI 99% RTP Crash reference model, the probability of reaching target T is 0.99/T. Higher targets reduce hit rate without increasing long-run expectation.

Quick facts

Reach target

P(reach T)=0.99/T

Bust before

1−0.99/T

Theoretical RTP

99%

Key idea

Target changes variance, not EV

01

Turning a target into reach probability

For target multiplier T, the ideal 99% RTP model uses P(reach T)=0.99/T. A 2× target is reached 49.5% of the time, 5× is 19.8%, and 10× is 9.9%.

The formula describes a long-run distribution across independent rounds. A run of low crash points does not make a high target more likely on the next round.

02

Why target does not change long-run EV

If a successful target pays T×, theoretical expected payout is T×P(reach T)=T×0.99/T=0.99.

Raising the target therefore shifts the shape toward fewer hits and larger multipliers. It changes variance, not the 99% expectation in the ideal model.

03

Crash point and finite precision

Real implementations do not use infinitely precise continuous numbers. LINBEI's certification describes Crash as a shared-round finite model and checks the target model, finite quantization and shared-round invariants.

The 0.99/T relation is the conceptual core, while production outcomes remain governed by the server-authoritative shared round and its discrete rules.

04

History does not predict the next crash

With independent RNG, a previous 1.05×, 50× or a cluster of low multipliers does not make the next round compensate. Recent Crash history is descriptive, not predictive.

Fairness is better evaluated through RNG, shared-round truth, math and settlement rather than pattern-reading a short streak.

EXAMPLE

Target examples

• T=2× → P(reach)=0.99/2=49.5% → P(bust before)=50.5%
• T=5× → P(reach)=19.8%
• T=10× → P(reach)=9.9%
• Ideal expected payout at any target: T×0.99/T=0.99

Frequently asked questions